Don’t Count the Big Apple Out Just Yet

While yet another appliance at Chez Carlino went on the fritz – this time thankfully it was just a broken dryer belt – I found myself engaged in a brief but lively conversation with the repairman, who interestingly enough sold real estate as a sideline.

His territory was the northern part of the suburban county where I live and he said for the first time in his career, the buyer market far exceeded inventory of available homes – by nearly a 3-to-1 margin.

He explained there was a massive exodus from New York City – fueled partly by the COVID-19 pandemic and shuttered businesses, the other a spike in crime thanks largely to the reduction in policing policies and bail reform measures championed by the buffoon currently occupying City Hall and his idiot minions on the City Council. (his words not mine, but you will not get an argument from me.)

In any event, his theory was that New York City was amid a decline from which it may never recover. Even local suburban papers carried articles on how outlying towns are basically positioning themselves as havens from the urban blight.

But New York has seen its share of tough times before and has managed to rebound each time when either nature or events have smacked it with a 2-by-4.

After all it survived the financial crisis of the 70s where the city teetered on bankruptcy. For those of you old enough to remember a classic 1975 headline splashed across one of the tabloids “Ford to City: Drop Dead” – referring to then President Gerald Ford’s refusing a federal bailout.

Then there was the gritty crime-ridden New York of the 70s and 80s, a Zeitgeist perfectly captured in such films as The French Connection and Serpico.

Then came 9-11 and a climate of fear that downtown and the financial district would never recover. Not only did it recover but until COVID hit, it was rebuilt and better than before. In 2009 the Great Recession arrived on its doorstep and its obituary was once again being written – but like Mark Twain, its death was greatly exaggerated.

Three years later Hurricane Sandy devastated much of downtown and Battery Park not to mention flooding hundreds of office buildings and dozens subway stations. But again, like a fighter who refuses to remain down for the count, it rose yet again.

Now the pandemic is wreaking havoc on businesses and residents and New York City finds itself once again in the crosshairs of those predicting its demise.

I’m not a betting man, but I will lay 2-to-1 that it will find a way back.