Don’t Bet On It!

Our family does not have a great history with regard to predictions.

My grandfather for example, took Germany and 7 points in World War II.

A generation later, my father was offered a half-interest in a parking garage on the west side of Manhattan, which he promptly turned down. Two years later, said garage sat at the foot of the newly revamped Penn Station and Madison Square Garden.

In high school, I laughed out loud when CBS announced that it was launching a new series based on a 1970s hit movie. I assured everyone who would listen that it would last one season, if that.

The series was M*A*S*H.

I once had a nerdy tech colleague who harbored a teenaged-type crush on a sultry receptionist at my former company. When he asked my advice about approaching her I told him to forget it, she probably has a line of potential suitors circling the block.

They, in fact, just celebrated their 20^th wedding anniversary.

You sort of get the idea.

This is why despite nearly 40 excursions to Las Vegas for various conferences and events; I remain as far away from the casino floor as legally allowed. I would save a lot of time just handing my money to the pit boss.

Which brings me to today’s topic.

We like to think of ourselves as matchmakers of sorts, we try and put M&A minded firms together with whom we think would be a good fit. We stress the four C’s of a successful affiliation – continuity, capacity, culture and of course, chemistry. There might even be a pilot for a reality show in there somewhere.

We don’t like to make decisions for our clients about which firms we think would be compatible, but after closing some 1,000 deals, we think we have a pretty acute sense of what will work and what won’t in terms of chemistry.

But sometimes we don’t.

Case in point: recently I tried to convince the powers that be (re: my bosses) that a certain large firm – let’s call them Firm A, would not be an appealing  succession solution to one potential mergee – Firm B - that was significantly smaller in terms of revenue and personnel.

And that’s when my dubious history in prognostication returns with a vengeance.

Turns out, we immediately received virtual love letters from each regarding the results of their initial meeting and multiple requests for us to arrange a second get-together, which we were more than happy to oblige.

And this is not a rogue situation.

In fact, if memory serves, this is perhaps the fourth time this year, that what appeared on paper at least to be mismatched firms began the dating game.

So sometimes, the M&A process becomes counterintuitive and to coin a hackneyed phrase – you just never know.

Because of my past missteps, at least I now know enough to let each situation evolve on its own.

Did I mention the time in the early 1980s when I was offered stock in a technology start up located just outside Seattle?

Want to take a guess on how that turned out?